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24TransformationThroughTrainingIssueNo6December2014whereitisoftenportrayedtobelittleotherthanashadowanamorphousideologythathasfewestablishedprecedentsitistheoppositeinthedrone-proofmetropolisesofPakistandespiteadecadeofwaracrossthebordersitcontinuestoholdcourtandinSyriaandIraqbothJahbatAlNusraandISISareAlQaedainallbutname.IndeedtheblackflagfliesalongtheEuphratesfromTheCityofMosquesinAlAnbarjust43mileswestofBaghdadtothegreatCitadelofAleppoattheveryheartoftheLevantandfromLondonthroughCairototheFarEastitflutters.YemeniandSaudielementsarealsoofparticularnotegiventheirmergencein2009toformAlQaedaintheArabianPeninsulaastoointheHornofAfricaareAlShabaabsthreefrontsandAQIMwhoarebattlingtheFrenchintheMaghreb.IndeedwithitsmanyalliesandaffiliatesfromLashkar-e-TaibainPakistantoBokoHaraminwhatwastheKanemEmpireandJemaahIslamiahinSouthEastAsiaitisnotthatAlQaedahaschangedbutasvulnerabilitiesandopportunitieshaveopenedupthatithastransformedNelsonSanderson2011.Section4.TheCrimsonTideItishencewithurgencythatAlQaedaisidentifiedforwhatitisasitmorphsfromoneidentitytotheotheramidsttheconflictriddenenvironmentsfromwhichitsaffiliateshaveemergedandwhereitsideologyfindsresonance.Fromthisperspectivegiventheneedformultifacetedapproachesonthegroundthatareflexibleenoughtocontaintheunpredictabilityofthisthreatforexamplethedemographicchallengestocomeoverthenextdecadethepressurethatthiswillputonnaturalresourcessuchaswaterfightingoveroilfieldsandportspiracythelong-termimpactoftheArabSpringattacksagainsttheBritishRoyalFamilytheradicalizationofMuslimsacrosstheWestandthetypesoftechnologythatadvantageasymmetricalforcesoverconventionalonestheacademicargumentsoftenappearstaticandhistorical.FurthermoreifAlQaedaiscoredrivenfocusonitsaffiliatesmightgiveitroomtobreatherelocateandrejuvenate.Itmightalsoforceachangefromanetworkofexistinginsurgentforcestoacellularmodelreinforcedbysleeperslonewolvesandtraitors.Ontheotherhandfocusonthecoremightreigniteanti-Westernsentimentsacrossitsaffiliates.IfAlQaedaishoweveraloosenetworkoffranchisedadviceonexplosivesfinancedroneattacksandtechnologyforcourtedterroristscounter-terrorismmeasureswouldneedtoconsiderthelinkingofregionalgroupsorattemptstoinfiltratetheinstitutionsoftheirstates.GiventheincalculablenumberofvariablesposedbyanalysesofAlQaedathequestionalmostalwayscomesbacktoeitheracceptingtheinevitabilityofanunendingwarorlearningtolivewithitandrelyingmoreonprivatemilitarycompaniestocounterthethreatofAQAM.Section5.TheLastTideThereisatideintheaffairsofmen.WhichtakenatthefloodleadsontofortuneJuliusCaesarActIVAsaconsequencetheanalysesofAlQaedahavearguablynotjustunderminedtheWestspositioninanyfuturemediatoryrolesacrosstheworldbutfuelledwaningconflictsandopenedupgulfsofdifferencesbetweenhithertostandingalliesparticularlywithTurkeyPakistanSaudiArabiaandGermany.ThroughthepoliticizationofterrorismbeyondtheparametersoftherealityonthegroundthirteenyearsofasymmetricaldecentralizedwarfarehaveseriouslychallengedNATOsabilitytofightaconventionalmulti-linear3rdgenerationwartheAfghanizationofTreatyforcesCoalitionsoftheWillingandthecivilianizationoftheArmedForceshaveallbutdepleteditsinteroperabilityandconventionalcapabilities.WiththedecliningpopularityofthewartheU.S.shareofNATOdefensespendinghasnowrisentomorethan75percentandwithittheallegiancesofyesterday-whileeveryalliancemembervotedfortheLibyamissionlessthanhalfparticipatedatallandfewerthanathirdwerewillingtoparticipateinthestrikemissionasRussiaandtheworldlookedonFranceandBritainstoodalone.CompetinganalysesofAlQaedahavenotonlydistortedcounter-terrorismpoliciesandledtocompetingresponsesthathavehadmassiveconsequencesfortheWesternAlliancetheyhaveshapedthem.ConclusionOverthesefivetidesofSalafiinspiredterrorismwhatstandsoutmorepoignantlythananythingelseisthedamagethatthecompetinganalysesofAlQaedahavecausedoutoflinewitheventsonthegroundandhistoricalbynaturetheyhighlightthedangersintherelationshipbetweenterrorismresearchandthepractitionersofcounter-terrorism.NotonlyhasitdirectlyprotractedtheWaronTerrorandfuelledterrorismbutledindirectlytoachainofeventsthathaveaffectedtheAlliancefortheworse.InshortfromtheSovietwarinAfghanistantotheUSroutofAlQaedaatToraBoratheconceptofnewterrorismhelpedpushcounter-terrorismpolicyintonon-negotiablepositionswithaholisticviewofterrorismthatovershadowedthehistoricalcontextoftheconflictandtherealpolitikoftheeventsontheground-causingAlQaedatoremilitarizeandtheripplesfromthistidetosurge.WiththeUnitedStatesfightingawarthatstartedin2001andAlQaedafightingawarthatstartedinthe7thCenturypositionsoneitherthewarbeingwonorthehistoricalcontextbeingworthlessindeedappearnavetodayrestrictiveconceptsthatdominatedacademiaonsocalledradicalizationlonewolvesandleaderlessJihadandthebrandingofgroupsirrespectiveoftheirhistoriesledblindlytodifferentreadingsofthebattlefieldandholisticcounter-terrorismmeasuresthathaveneedlesslyendedthe