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20TransformationThroughTrainingIssueNo6December2014TotracethelineageoftheCosttotheWestthefirstargumentofthispartoftheessaylooksatsixcompetinganalysesofAlQaedaacrossfourtidesofrecenthistory1fromAlQaedasJihadagainsttheSovietsinAfghanistantotheirroutbytheAmericansinthewakeof9112fromtheredoubtsofPakistansNorthWesternFrontiertotheMumbaiAttacksin20083fromLashkar-e-TaibasmomentaryusurpationoftheSalafivanguardtoAlShabaabsattackinKenyaand4fromthisfront-lineintheWaronTerrortothatwhichisyettobefoughttheCrimsonTide.Thefirstperiodcoverscounter-terrorismresponsestocompetinganalysesofAlQaedaasareligiousorpoliticalphenomenon.ThesecondperiodexploreswhatbecameofAl-QaedaafterToraBora.ThisisfollowedbyadiscussiononperspectivesofwhatAlQaedaactuallyistodaythethreatitposesforthefutureandwhatthesecouldtranslatetofortheWest.TheessayarguesthattheconsequencesofcompetinganalysesofAlQaedahavenotonlycompromisedcounter-terrorismmeasuresbutobscuredanddistorteditstruenature.Thesecondargumentopenswithadetailedintroductiontotheimportanceandrelevancetodayoftheforcesthatshapedpatternsofpoliticalviolencebetween1914and1945.ByquestioningRapoportsWavesTheorythehistoryofterrorismacrossthisperiodisshowntohavebeenovershadowedbythewarsthatframeitandasaconsequencethatitsrelevancehasoftenbeenoverlookedbyscholarsofterrorism.Themainpremiseisthatwarandthepoliticaleconomicandsocialforcesofthetimewereasmuchacatalystforterrorismbetween1914and1945astheyaretodayandthatmanyoftheprotagonistsfromthisperiodwereactuallyregionalnon-statecombatantscivilian-soldierswithlong-standinghistoricalgrievancesthathadtakenuparms.Wheretheactualbeginningsofmodernterrorismlieisseenasanacademicpointinthatitisnotsomuchwherethebirthofmodernterrorismtookplacethatisimportantbutwheretheforcesthatshapeditsrelevancetotheterrorismofthe21stcenturycanbefound.Itisarguedthatthiseraisfundamentaltofindingthatrelevanceandthatinattentiontoithasledtoagapofknowledgeonthehistoryofterrorismthehistoryofthetwoworldwarsandthecomplicatedrelationshipbetweenwarandterrorism.Argument1WhatsinanameThatwhichwecallaroseByanyothernamewouldsmellassweet.RomeoandJulietActIISectiononebeginswithadiscussionontwoschoolsofthoughtonterrorismattheturnofthecenturyandhowtheyledtocompetinganalysesofAlQaeda.InthecontextofwhatwasbelievedbymanytohavebeenaradicaltransformationifnotarevolutioninthecharacterofterrorismLaqueur2001thathadtakenplacewith911thetheoryofnewterrorismanditsover-ridingimpactontheperiodisdiscussedfirst.Thisisfollowedbyalookatcounter-insurgencyinitiativesbasedonconceptualizationsofreligionasthepredominantimpetusforterroristattacksSimonandBenjamin2000atthetimeandthecompetinganalysisofAlQaedaasanoverridinglypoliticalanimal.TotietherelevancyoftheacademicdebatetotheeventsunfoldingonthegroundthissectionconcludeswithadiscussiononwhythehistoryofterrorismissosalienttounderstandingcompetinganalysesofAlQaedaandhowbesttorespondtoit.ThesecondsectionlooksmorespecificallyatterrorismfromToraBoraonfocusingprimarilyoncounter-terrorismresponsestocompetinganalysesofAlQaedaas1acentralizedphenomenonand2afranchisedphenomenon.Sectionthreeconcentratesoncounter-terrorismresponsestocompetinganalysesofAlQaedatodayandsectionfouranalysesofthefuturethreatposedbythosewhodirectitandthoseinspiredbyit.ThefinalChristopherMcKeatingMilitaryAdvisorFutureForcesExhibitionConference2014Counter-TerrorismPoliciestheCosttotheWestGunpowderTreasonPlotPartII