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30TransformationThroughTrainingIssueNo4November2013PeterBergenthedirectorofthenationalsecuritystudiesprogramattheNewAmericaFoundationsaidTheexplosionindronetechnologypromisestochangethewaynationsconductwarandthreatenstobeginanewarmsraceasgovern-mentsscrambletocounterbalancetheiradversaries.11Inshortthedisseminationofmilitarytechnologyanddualpurposecomponentshasalreadyfiltereddown.Havingestablishedthattheconsensusonterroristsconsideringdronetechnologyishighandthatdroneswouldnotbedifficulttoweaponizeitwasimportanttopinpointwhytheyhavenotasyetbeenusedbeyondtheexperimentalstageandifsuicidebombersandcar-bombswillremaintheweaponofchoice.Thissamplingshowedtheargumentthatdronesareunlikelytoreplacesuicidebombersandcarbombsthehallmarksofthemodernterroristtobelessthanblackandwhite.Thereasonforthisisthatincertainscenariosawell-directedexplosiveofseveralkilosflyingat200kphwouldhavefarmoreofadevastatingeffectordesiredeffectthana500kgcarbombontheground.Thefearisthatdronescouldopenupareasthatwerehithertoofflimitswithexistingweapons.Furthermorewhilstasuicidebombermaywellforexamplehaveasequallyadevastatingeffectonastadiumcrowdasasmallsuicidedronethedronecouldflyinfastfromhundredsofkilometresawaywithdozensofcontubernalestakeintargetsofopportunityonrouteandinrealtimehomeinonsecondarytargetsi.e.searchandrescueteamsandcongestedemergencyexits.Inshorttheirmeanstoterrorizeandthemeanstowhichtheycanbeappliedareinfinite.ItismerelyaquestiontodayoffuelandpayloadcalculationsMaxPayloadMTOW-OEWFuelCapacity.2TargetSelectionThemotivesbehindAl-QaedasinitialattackswerecleartoradicalizeandmobilizetheIslamicworldJasonBurke2005andpromotetheideologythatunitedandmotivatedJihadistgroups.AsAl-Qaedahasmatureditsrankshavecon-tinuedthisthemeandthegrouptodayisreflectiveofaninternationalacademicallyqualifiedandyoungergeneration.FurthermoreadecadeofrepressivelegislationandwarhasfragmentedanddecentralizedthehierarchytothedegreethattheiraffiliateshavebecomeincreasinglyautonomousandtheirmotivationsforalliancemorevariedGartenstein-RossandDabruzz2008.InthisaspectofAl-QaedathatisimportantwithregardtothequestionofdroneuseunlikeotherterroristgroupswhereinnovationisoftenstifledAl-Qaedahasbecomecreativeandtechnologicallyoriented.MoreoverwhilstAl-Qaedasoriginalleadershipinspiredagenerationofmassattacksatthefarenemybycareerter-roriststhenewleadershipmightnotthemotivationalinfluencesonthegroupsfollowershavesimplychangedbeyondrecognitionovertheyearsandthiscouldhaveseriousimplicationsonfutureattacks.ForexamplewhatradicalizedBinLadensandAlZawahirisgenerationisverydifferentfromwhatradicalisestodayspost-ArabSpringyouthandpre-datesthemanythousandsofjihadistswhohavefoughtoverthelastdecadeasadirectresultofthewarsinIraqandAfghanistan.InshorttodaysSalafistsarenotmotivatedbyfightingtheSovietsforexampleordependentonthenetworksthatBinLadensgenerationrelieduponandthattheWestwasfamiliarwithcountering.Whattheyhaveissomethingelseanditisnotnew.Infactitisasoldasthehills.WhattodaysSalafistshaveincommonisasharedperceptionofhatredandanideologythattranscendsdisbeliefasharedexpectationofbeingexploitedandasharedanthology.TheirmotivationalinfluencesstemfromthebattlefieldsofBosniaChechnyaAfghanistanIraqSyriaanincreasinglyglobalisedworldandacomprehensiveinnateunderstandingoftheirenemy.TheirnetworkisnolongerfamilialandlocalisedbutOedipalandBalkanized.WhathasbeenthekeytotheirresurgenceandentrenchmentfromNorthAfricaandtheMiddleEasttoParisandLondoncanhencebefoundinthehistorycontinuityandmodernityofterrorism.IneffecttheleadershipofAl-Qaedatodaycouldbesaidtohavedemocratized-withlegionsofautonomousmulti-layerednetworksofcellsaffiliationsandallianceshavinginstitutionalisedanideologythathascapturedthezeitgeistof21stcenturyIslam.Itcouldalsobesaidtohavesetininterminablemotionoftheinspirationfornotjustthisgenerationsradicalisationbutthenextsmillionsofpotentialrecruitsandsympathisersfromwhichtopoolindirectlyormilitarizeunderaphysicalstructurethatisdecentralizedandsupportedfinanciallytechnologicallylogisticallyandideologicallynotbyafranchisedparentalorganization-butacommunity.ThisprogressionhasprovedappropriatetothegoalsoftheorganizationinthatithasenabledAl-QaedanotonlytosurvivetheonslaughtoftheworldssuperpowersbutmaintainitspositionattheforefrontoftheSalafistmovement.LikeallterroristsAl-Qaedasideologyisneverthelessreflectedinboththetargetsitselectsandthetacticsandweaponsitusestoattackthemmassivecasualtiesorhorrorkillingsinaninternationalpublicisedcontext.Andbyreversingtheequa-tionresearchcanstilldeterminetheirweaponsofchoiceandlearnhowtocounterthem.IntheAl-Khobarcompoundattackof2003SaudiArabiaitwascar-bombsandtheuseofblast-walls.Itwasalsothiscasewherethecounter-measuresfailedtoholdtheterroristsandafterseparatingthehostagesintoMuslimsandnon-Muslimstheyproceededtoslitthethroatsofthe